{ "schemaVersion": "evidence-benchmark.v2", "runId": "ai-live-20260720T192203945Z-33656", "createdAt": "2026-07-20T19:22:03.947Z", "mode": "live", "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", "beliefModelContractVersion": "2.0.0", "promptVersion": "belief-model.v2.2", "outputSchemaVersion": "2.0.0", "runtimeProfileVersion": "belief-runtime.v2", "effectiveTimeoutMs": 15000, "effectiveRetryCount": 0, "datasetVersion": "belief-benchmark.v2", "datasetHash": "7c8463d21cac53ea9cb7d88e66cf166462a53f4a2cb97bb5ecb5c92ce0ec06c7", "split": "development", "requestedIds": [ "belief-en-001", "belief-en-002", "belief-en-003", "belief-en-004", "belief-en-005", "belief-en-006", "belief-en-007", "belief-en-008", "belief-en-009", "belief-en-010", "belief-en-011", "belief-en-012", "belief-en-013", "belief-en-014", "belief-en-015", "belief-en-016", "belief-en-017", "belief-en-018", "belief-en-019", "belief-en-020", "belief-en-021", "belief-en-022", "belief-en-023", "belief-en-024", "belief-en-025", "belief-en-026", "belief-en-027", "belief-en-028", "belief-en-029", "belief-en-030", "belief-es-001", "belief-es-002", "belief-es-003", "belief-es-004", "belief-es-005", "belief-es-006", "belief-es-007", "belief-es-008", "belief-es-009", "belief-es-010", "belief-es-011", "belief-es-012", "belief-es-013", "belief-es-014", "belief-es-015", "belief-es-016", "belief-es-017", "belief-es-018", "belief-es-019", "belief-es-020", "belief-es-021", "belief-es-022", "belief-es-023", "belief-es-024", "belief-es-025", "belief-es-026", "belief-es-027", "belief-es-028", "belief-es-029", "belief-es-030" ], "repeat": 1, "maxExamples": 60, "pricingVersion": "pricing.v1", "costStatus": "unresolved", "stoppedReason": "complete", "results": [ { "exampleId": "belief-en-001", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 3083, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "6f4342031da916dce740c04eee4d4460d03c038acc84fd72e0025ff3b5e89c7c", "outputHash": "2eab80eac83e610714d76d19f371931b8f8bb23f24ba6b23b0a1faff07224c73", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The marketing campaign caused the increase in sales.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the sales increase to the marketing campaign." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The marketing campaign caused the increase in sales.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the sales increase to the marketing campaign." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1765, "outputTokens": 103, "totalTokens": 1868 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-002", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4881, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "5af425f7fc5ad342b14abc9d9526a1e61be477e758c86fa19fcc384d4a1b973e", "outputHash": "6dc1f7eb2e7d49de9359d4471957de6629a8641e5e77bbf88eb3ad460f9796f9", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The festival probably contributed to increased sales.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "probably" ], "conciseMirror": "You think the festival probably helped sales rise." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The festival probably contributed to increased sales.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "probably" ], "conciseMirror": "You think the festival probably helped sales rise." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1764, "outputTokens": 185, "totalTokens": 1949 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-003", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 2924, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "02a87e46f0a0ce636a8c3d94fd211a51e21573d8a67bac0d7c2d387476316403", "outputHash": "66682ca80979c0dd43fe4148a1194d0b49915d0edb477eb59412e35805f0b292", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The coastal district caused the higher sales.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the higher sales to the coastal district." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The coastal district caused the higher sales.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the higher sales to the coastal district." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1765, "outputTokens": 102, "totalTokens": 1867 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-004", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 5320, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "375be02a5e7f899f4bd3699fc40afd3a4bfc505d3ac24d6eec1176a3002054ec", "outputHash": "a30662c9c97012d26e494e270d040e454a025d42acbbcdc247310b56fedf6ced", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign, festival, and coastal district all contributed to sales.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute sales to multiple contributors: the campaign, festival, and coastal district." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign, festival, and coastal district all contributed to sales.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute sales to multiple contributors: the campaign, festival, and coastal district." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1770, "outputTokens": 217, "totalTokens": 1987 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-005", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 5036, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "61393392d2a3701482619084fbeffe49097f4636f346283e992715df5b0c6819", "outputHash": "ef3d2d345416983c6d83fcf8584f3ad9c3f61b219d5f9d7ce27887504aa4df86", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign may have contributed to sales, but the magnitude is uncertain.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "may have contributed", "uncertain how much" ], "conciseMirror": "You think the campaign may have contributed to sales, but you are uncertain about how much." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign may have contributed to sales, but the magnitude is uncertain.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "may have contributed", "uncertain how much" ], "conciseMirror": "You think the campaign may have contributed to sales, but you are uncertain about how much." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1770, "outputTokens": 195, "totalTokens": 1965 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-006", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4151, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "c2d982160f90628385fc11cbd5a8ab0b17f9b049ccee7d29a617389138e2f951", "outputHash": "d020926788c843d0bb892dc28af873e3043739cdde87ccc2dd287d917ff0331d", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Campaign exposure is associated with sales, but this does not establish that the campaign caused sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "correlation_only" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You identify a correlation between campaign exposure and sales while rejecting it as sufficient evidence of causation." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Campaign exposure is associated with sales, but this does not establish that the campaign caused sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "correlation_only" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You identify a correlation between campaign exposure and sales while rejecting it as sufficient evidence of causation." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1772, "outputTokens": 121, "totalTokens": 1893 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-007", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4008, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "e40d355503715d9304010df3d85c3cd2cd67cf834ba712d4535c11dba05cc9a9", "outputHash": "a73a45ffa537a5a0e59c192ed7ff685fdfdd3e62e5ffbb7afae982c09d9edf1d", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign caused the increase in sales because sales were lower before it and higher afterward.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "before_after_causation", "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the change in sales to the campaign based on sales being lower before it and higher afterward." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign caused the increase in sales because sales were lower before it and higher afterward.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "before_after_causation", "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the change in sales to the campaign based on sales being lower before it and higher afterward." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1775, "outputTokens": 181, "totalTokens": 1956 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-008", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4769, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "87601824a742c3d1bbb97824d08bf587704c01a6cdd17db8ea3dc4ff7f7391f1", "outputHash": "8f91d4cc6d39d3a48f89a97fb7e17c949dcc2c8000f53302711988c5d60c2b15", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "A controlled comparison holding festival and district constant is needed to isolate the campaign's effect on sales.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You propose holding festival and district constant in a controlled comparison to isolate the campaign's effect on sales." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "A controlled comparison holding festival and district constant is needed to isolate the campaign's effect on sales.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You propose holding festival and district constant in a controlled comparison to isolate the campaign's effect on sales." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1774, "outputTokens": 237, "totalTokens": 2011 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-009", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 7695, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "d3d21ccfb72ad46ca15c1e0f91d9dbd643b88f84e3eb099ef0717981ffe1ce95", "outputHash": "0703fc23d6959ae48a960327df9323cbc353e2e7b98d32e6559cc2f0bb493d2a", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign cannot fully explain the sales increase because festival and district are confounders.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You identify festival and district as confounders and reject the campaign as the sole explanation for the sales increase." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign cannot fully explain the sales increase because festival and district are confounders.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You identify festival and district as confounders and reject the campaign as the sole explanation for the sales increase." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1778, "outputTokens": 321, "totalTokens": 2099 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-010", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 3397, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "75b56b34ffe7a50885136c4e75b17c8a73a4715bc4b84d110d9a2f627d81bbc1", "outputHash": "2fc57ac3ffcf8f3bfee00d687eae62995100b9c4410ba64066d73a476c7bdbef", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The cause of the sales increase cannot be determined from the available information.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "not enough information to know" ], "conciseMirror": "You say there is not enough information to determine what caused the sales increase." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The cause of the sales increase cannot be determined from the available information.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "not enough information to know" ], "conciseMirror": "You say there is not enough information to determine what caused the sales increase." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1769, "outputTokens": 119, "totalTokens": 1888 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-011", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 7698, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "969d0473a46d072bf45f47914b07dabdec0171999af81f104df221b916ceb9c8", "outputHash": "6c43abe1aa9da203a1a2b059b74e7571b63ee35b253370ef4aa8e190c3cbc458", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "An unspecified city-related change may have affected sales, but the explanation is unclear.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "Maybe", "the case is unclear" ], "conciseMirror": "You suggest an unspecified city-related change may have affected sales, while noting that the case is unclear." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "An unspecified city-related change may have affected sales, but the explanation is unclear.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "Maybe", "the case is unclear" ], "conciseMirror": "You suggest an unspecified city-related change may have affected sales, while noting that the case is unclear." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1770, "outputTokens": 381, "totalTokens": 2151 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-012", "repetition": 1, "status": "rejected", "latencyMs": 0, "retryCount": 0, "inputHash": "5443d3e80cf6b8f3212f72934708ffb830374e600fa3ccb1556ee886a988b4a6" }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-013", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4244, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "bea41bd39f2eb81c405e9e318110f60a5c14397817ac4d57640705b5f440b132", "outputHash": "ba448e35a4bf15c6cb6bdd92b09c8c999d3c32370af9597e019b04a3740bbb5c", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign caused sales to increase because the increase came afterward.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "before_after_causation", "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You claim the campaign increased sales because the rise happened afterward." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign caused sales to increase because the increase came afterward.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "before_after_causation", "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You claim the campaign increased sales because the rise happened afterward." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1768, "outputTokens": 187, "totalTokens": 1955 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-014", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 9209, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "c734b203476ea7394cfdb12a898712d392e8a74d26c1091450177dcbec100dec", "outputHash": "663801464a340495a985932a7b4c7364267397d84738804f11ec90052c3a84ac", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The festival caused most of the change in sales.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "I think" ], "conciseMirror": "You attribute most of the sales change to the festival." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The festival caused most of the change in sales.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "I think" ], "conciseMirror": "You attribute most of the sales change to the festival." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1771, "outputTokens": 462, "totalTokens": 2233 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-015", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4107, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "b36f8ed4d426b4610ed71bcdf35c6acc15ea1e272f6ad8ae8b29b8147089acaa", "outputHash": "780ae9c1ba58d7e96f5569edaa4e47edda9ddcf84899829fd81b305b63edcc7a", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign may have helped increase sales, while the festival was another cause.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "maybe" ], "conciseMirror": "You suggest the campaign may have helped sales and that the festival was another cause." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign may have helped increase sales, while the festival was another cause.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "maybe" ], "conciseMirror": "You suggest the campaign may have helped sales and that the festival was another cause." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1769, "outputTokens": 197, "totalTokens": 1966 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-016", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 3941, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "305c4bd69cf0feb1fa0deeb3e6eff1a7a0a1d3d586a00c1a606e75c8ad69da17", "outputHash": "e1786a388ac0f3246a51426670661ab569daac8c18fd2bc9ce5cd4e673714981", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "No independent causal belief is stated.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "The text does not independently state a causal explanation for sales." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "No independent causal belief is stated.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "The text does not independently state a causal explanation for sales." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1772, "outputTokens": 165, "totalTokens": 1937 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-017", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4050, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "e43a8ceba375c088f70c9e3b9d1b3017d37daa425c8ed19b93af38af45bed89f", "outputHash": "5b27114c4105b2b998cec2d99474a933463ade73faa8d63f8c7cabb2cf79b109", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The case includes a campaign, a festival, and coastal and inland districts.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You note that the case mentions a campaign, a festival, and different districts, without making a causal claim about sales." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The case includes a campaign, a festival, and coastal and inland districts.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You note that the case mentions a campaign, a festival, and different districts, without making a causal claim about sales." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1772, "outputTokens": 181, "totalTokens": 1953 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-018", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 6543, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "0fb39f09ab66e9d03d4017b8308e3011694920c06c6b6166b52e96b3506bcd6a", "outputHash": "164b0665b6e1c344b38be34e02768e3b626519114c5b319cbe6484c96ca14933", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign, festival, and coast may all contribute to sales, but more comparison is needed.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "might add something", "could also contribute", "more comparison is needed" ], "conciseMirror": "You suggest that several factors may contribute to sales and that more comparison is needed." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The campaign, festival, and coast may all contribute to sales, but more comparison is needed.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "possible", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "might add something", "could also contribute", "more comparison is needed" ], "conciseMirror": "You suggest that several factors may contribute to sales and that more comparison is needed." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1778, "outputTokens": 338, "totalTokens": 2116 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-019", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 7633, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "4c2ab9e45efbc232101928762d00d0fbf9ab2a7d656facbd2081b0e46ba74449", "outputHash": "2bb6c3e0a8c71b434d2b5a3b4fdc2f0646a5235b4a664b973a932a46068fa789", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The ad campaign definitely increased sales, though the size of the increase is unknown.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "the exact amount is unknown" ], "conciseMirror": "The campaign definitely increased sales, but the exact amount is unknown." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The ad campaign definitely increased sales, though the size of the increase is unknown.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "the exact amount is unknown" ], "conciseMirror": "The campaign definitely increased sales, but the exact amount is unknown." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1772, "outputTokens": 369, "totalTokens": 2141 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-020", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 7826, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "4e38f6fdbf41766019f4fd6105a2ed6e6b87caa667697e0eea8d5987faf7e214", "outputHash": "127d95b644a9dee0cba5c86f59c5767846b7baa05f7118bc2442ac0b9dcfd802", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Festival attendance may be associated with sales, but the association does not establish causation.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "correlation_only" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "may be related" ], "conciseMirror": "You see a possible relationship between festival attendance and sales but do not treat it as proof that the festival caused sales." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Festival attendance may be associated with sales, but the association does not establish causation.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "correlation_only" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "may be related" ], "conciseMirror": "You see a possible relationship between festival attendance and sales but do not treat it as proof that the festival caused sales." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1773, "outputTokens": 228, "totalTokens": 2001 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-021", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 5880, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "2c8964bbadf98043dfcf35c213c76a15cce849477edcb19be6254cf4ed63c8f6", "outputHash": "75c45245acf660bdbe149686d967ae0fdc743ca08c07229e01858c3d6c1308af", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The change to the coastal district caused the entire increase in sales.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "district", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "before_after_causation", "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute every extra sale to moving from the inland district to the coastal district." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The change to the coastal district caused the entire increase in sales.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "district", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "before_after_causation", "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute every extra sale to moving from the inland district to the coastal district." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1775, "outputTokens": 195, "totalTokens": 1970 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-022", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 6153, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "b6b90c19ad2c057b706cb74be5fdc4516b82cfa28320ad7e68b2be1569f96085", "outputHash": "770d490768eb336442e078cad68a2cb00dc3f6ce7f5445ca0eb96186771d799d", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Districts should be compared while campaign and festival are held constant.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "Compare coastal and inland districts while controlling for campaign and festival." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Districts should be compared while campaign and festival are held constant.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "Compare coastal and inland districts while controlling for campaign and festival." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1770, "outputTokens": 246, "totalTokens": 2016 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-023", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 4892, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "d7dc993af915a6d0a58eba99990b6dbea3722dbe0bb758181713c8f8e1351605", "outputHash": "9d93946782338254de53ce54e13f901735cbe431f5add553cec637f4cbc5a13d", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Estimate the festival's contribution to sales by varying only the festival while holding campaign and district constant.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "The festival's contribution to sales can be estimated by holding campaign and district constant and varying only the festival." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Estimate the festival's contribution to sales by varying only the festival while holding campaign and district constant.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "The festival's contribution to sales can be estimated by holding campaign and district constant and varying only the festival." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1773, "outputTokens": 218, "totalTokens": 1991 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-024", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 12574, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "f0e6bf284bf9987a4c96828c33ae4d5e87aa2ab280ee465a0b1890d00736450c", "outputHash": "99051b8be76525f4b8977ac934d068cd3cc1a2f3aaa9b0f8231f2a0611a840fe", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The story does not show whether the coast or the festival had a greater effect on sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "cannot tell whether" ], "conciseMirror": "You cannot determine whether the coast or the festival mattered more for sales from the story." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The story does not show whether the coast or the festival had a greater effect on sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "cannot tell whether" ], "conciseMirror": "You cannot determine whether the coast or the festival mattered more for sales from the story." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1771, "outputTokens": 409, "totalTokens": 2180 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-025", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 6853, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "251641018eb4aaa6f35f69fcaabe31292cf9ce6fcd223e3403a0bab26d2f3776", "outputHash": "94933a5e314f5c69b4a739a35f5a6ebb03cd2382a67c3728236de1aecea46c16", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The before-and-after comparison conflates changes in time, campaign, festival, and district.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You note that the before-and-after sales increase coincides with changes in time, campaign, festival, and district." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The before-and-after comparison conflates changes in time, campaign, festival, and district.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You note that the before-and-after sales increase coincides with changes in time, campaign, festival, and district." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1774, "outputTokens": 280, "totalTokens": 2054 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-026", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 6609, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "77db594183e7c7e37677ce336dfff471ed570ceb23db2fe19be48e6c10395780", "outputHash": "81f857b576612e9f52a55e9a2805ae9a5c98c5e9a2bcb51a3a1a573b2bb8fe68", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The sales change cannot be causally attributed because no comparison isolates a cause.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "controlled_comparison_awareness", "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "no comparison that isolates a cause" ], "conciseMirror": "You note that sales changed, but the description lacks a comparison that isolates a cause." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The sales change cannot be causally attributed because no comparison isolates a cause.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "controlled_comparison_awareness", "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "no comparison that isolates a cause" ], "conciseMirror": "You note that sales changed, but the description lacks a comparison that isolates a cause." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1771, "outputTokens": 336, "totalTokens": 2107 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-027", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 6154, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "f3bd8c00f9d8dc4b50acd5b4c92683b4930f75fd529c127ab524924c60d7e89c", "outputHash": "a7fe951b2d601d136b113bfcd676c07089143af61313d3db991e91fe296b82b7", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "A controlled comparison supports the campaign contributing to sales, but not being the primary cause.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "controlled_comparison_awareness", "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "The campaign contributed to sales, but the comparison does not support calling it the primary cause." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "A controlled comparison supports the campaign contributing to sales, but not being the primary cause.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "controlled_comparison_awareness", "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "The campaign contributed to sales, but the comparison does not support calling it the primary cause." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1776, "outputTokens": 252, "totalTokens": 2028 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-028", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 5282, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "5a622d91ada8d784e4625e3fc13421b443ce1c7e39425feec976ec4b1e6142c8", "outputHash": "a33b3d124cb6f2e244f01657da0ebcbcbf9de63c71f72d137d3d4b6f3723237a", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The downtown event caused the sales increase.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the sales jump to the big downtown event." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "The downtown event caused the sales increase.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "You attribute the sales jump to the big downtown event." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1769, "outputTokens": 202, "totalTokens": 1971 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-029", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 5201, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "48ae0bde3fe0f742023074e3d4ce2c077a19bc2cc8ce7d616af65366d4840521", "outputHash": "3608b5ccf88f6c79b47261d02b0b2b4a2e40309349ea31926c6808060809255e", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Being near the water probably attracts more customers and increases sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "probably" ], "conciseMirror": "You think being near the water probably attracts more customers and raises sales." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Being near the water probably attracts more customers and increases sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "probably" ], "conciseMirror": "You think being near the water probably attracts more customers and raises sales." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1769, "outputTokens": 250, "totalTokens": 2019 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-en-030", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 5630, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "be570772db551ac84047e24e9c22b40149f73eaeb37160ddd222656e49b4c052", "outputHash": "713917426b1dbbb70ecbcf467c1813a4fcebf63a8c6a6ef091bbe5ff7ca3d0ef", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Several factors changed together, and one snapshot cannot identify the main cause of sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "cannot identify the main cause" ], "conciseMirror": "You note that several factors changed together, so one snapshot cannot identify the main cause of sales." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "en", "primaryClaim": "Several factors changed together, and one snapshot cannot identify the main cause of sales.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "cannot identify the main cause" ], "conciseMirror": "You note that several factors changed together, so one snapshot cannot identify the main cause of sales." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1771, "outputTokens": 243, "totalTokens": 2014 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-es-001", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 6660, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "4540cb2d7e502a5f29dbca511e55483a3a72f6160a66dca391e7563a63dbc9dd", "outputHash": "3c0855fdb012eaac27d625e75b88cf14c8ea5b6a627538040418d51428f82f7c", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "La campaña publicitaria causó el aumento de ventas.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "Atribuyes el aumento de ventas a la campaña publicitaria." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "La campaña publicitaria causó el aumento de ventas.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "Atribuyes el aumento de ventas a la campaña publicitaria." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1768, "outputTokens": 109, "totalTokens": 1877 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-es-002", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 6248, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "9e312f37638bfd42687f7aca2bc7cf91a639ef4eea7896f570d95ce850e5dfac", "outputHash": "c3c400ec7cc0caae3ffd83a685fe9d55705fdcba10777d08712cf5ed29be42a0", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "El festival probablemente contribuyó al aumento de las ventas.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "probablemente" ], "conciseMirror": "Atribuyes probablemente parte del aumento de las ventas al festival." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "El festival probablemente contribuyó al aumento de las ventas.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", 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entre la asistencia al festival y las ventas, sin afirmar que el festival las cause." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1774, "outputTokens": 228, "totalTokens": 2002 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-es-021", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 5222, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "b1e6d87921622bf357424f9bd335b0a3751308aaf17fe15a32afba3a7271e1db", "outputHash": "3a6a7d630306e5f5ed97c0e13360145ec481cf5cf85c38945639b94e60e81f37", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "El cambio de distrito causó todo el aumento de ventas.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "district", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "before_after_causation", "single_cause_assumption" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "Atribuyes todo el aumento de ventas al cambio del distrito interior al 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"primaryClaim": "Se deben comparar los distritos de costa e interior manteniendo constantes la campaña y el festival.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "Propones comparar costa e interior controlando la campaña y el festival." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "Se deben comparar los distritos de costa e interior manteniendo constantes la campaña y el festival.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "Propones comparar costa e interior controlando la campaña y el festival." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1770, "outputTokens": 295, "totalTokens": 2065 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-es-023", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 8700, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "9f0c916ba8cb5fefc304bf062d3cd987bad9e6b9a026ec3faab1528fd665c5bb", "outputHash": "fe3913899632809e75a05b25104645e0971ee0dad9531c5154dd7f87f71e62d6", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "Propone variar solo el festival, manteniendo constantes la campaña y el distrito, para estimar su aporte a las ventas.", "claimedCause": "festival", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "controlled_comparison_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], 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"b5ae7a8ee9ecfce50ba03b797f56f6953f5d8ecdea37bfbb42340ee7d020d139", "outputHash": "e8750b1f945069d8822d5dab06954ba9e899ea5801e665a1d994fd743d411656", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "No se puede determinar si el distrito Costa o el festival influyeron más en las ventas.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "No puedo saber" ], "conciseMirror": "No puedes determinar con este relato si el distrito Costa o el festival influyeron más en las ventas." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "No se puede determinar si el distrito Costa o el festival influyeron más en las ventas.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "festival", "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "No puedo saber" ], "conciseMirror": "No puedes determinar con este relato si el distrito Costa o el festival influyeron más en las ventas." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1771, "outputTokens": 475, "totalTokens": 2246 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-es-025", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 8229, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "4362250b53411296c68669016185edb5da0d1bd4acf16c8d27a84d980d28430f", "outputHash": "c94af838557efb62699278b8e6fcab2297b5349e97964d884f5dd59149082b90", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "La comparación del aumento de ventas antes y después mezcla tiempo, campaña, festival y distrito.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "El aumento observado mezcla los efectos del tiempo, la campaña, el festival y el distrito." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "La comparación del aumento de ventas antes y después mezcla tiempo, campaña, festival y distrito.", "claimedCause": "multiple", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "El aumento observado mezcla los efectos del tiempo, la campaña, el festival y el distrito." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1772, "outputTokens": 348, "totalTokens": 2120 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-es-026", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 8460, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "df44de7802c92dd5b56cfa8bbd9dafb1ae0a947d525084c14b22e042146b8f47", "outputHash": "39c678abcb506edb76aecfc0dfb5b926c13eaf0f9df4189bd6de80707f1fc275", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "Las ventas cambiaron, pero no se puede aislar una causa sin una comparación adecuada.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "controlled_comparison_awareness", "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "no hay comparación que aísle una causa" ], "conciseMirror": "Se observa un cambio en las ventas, pero falta una comparación que permita aislar su causa." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": 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"sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "Una comparación controlada apoya que la campaña contribuyó a las ventas, sin atribuirle la causa principal.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "controlled_comparison_awareness", "confounder_awareness" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [], "conciseMirror": "La campaña contribuyó a las ventas, pero no se afirma que fuera la causa principal." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "Una comparación controlada apoya que la campaña contribuyó a las ventas, sin atribuirle la causa principal.", "claimedCause": "campaign", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "certain", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "campaign" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "festival", "district", "time" ], 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"sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "La ubicación junto al mar probablemente atrae clientes y aumenta las ventas.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "probablemente" ], "conciseMirror": "Crees que estar junto al mar probablemente atrae clientes y aumenta las ventas." }, "parsed": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "La ubicación junto al mar probablemente atrae clientes y aumenta las ventas.", "claimedCause": "district", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "probable", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [ "district" ], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "unclear" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "probablemente" ], "conciseMirror": "Crees que estar junto al mar probablemente atrae clientes y aumenta las ventas." }, "usage": { "inputTokens": 1770, "outputTokens": 267, "totalTokens": 2037 } }, { "exampleId": "belief-es-030", "repetition": 1, "status": "success", "latencyMs": 7679, "retryCount": 0, "providerModel": "gpt-5.6-sol", "inputHash": "3fa7819faaaee08750f1adfecac3544cdd736ebc3ef8e95c734489e4b4c31617", "outputHash": "5ab87fb171668da5b1810b70d38a684538351eb4d864d2390a85b86bb4151701", "sanitizedRawOutput": { "schemaVersion": "2.0.0", "language": "es", "primaryClaim": "Varios factores cambiaron a la vez y la información disponible no permite identificar la causa principal de las ventas.", "claimedCause": "unclear", "claimedEffect": "sales", "causalStrength": "unclear", "mentionedExplanatoryVariables": [], "omittedRelevantVariables": [ "campaign", "festival", "district", "time" ], "reasoningPatterns": [ "confounder_awareness", "insufficient_information" ], "uncertaintyLanguage": [ "no identifica la causa principal" ], 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